Analysis of economic viability with the use of monte carlo simulation for microgeneration of photovoltaic energy

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José Antonio de Miranda Lammoglia
Nilson Brandalise


A series of public policies are being adopted worldwide to seek greater participation of renewable energy sources in the energy matrix. Brazil is a country that has a predominantly renewable energy source, with hydroelectric energy being responsible for the largest portion, but with enormous potential to be exploited for solar energy. The objective of this study was to carry out an analysis of the economic viability of a photovoltaic matrix in the distributed microgeneration model from the residential consumer perspective. Through the Monte Carlo simulation, 10.000 iterations were performed and the NPV was calculated in each of them, then counted to recover the corresponding output probability distribution and verified the NPV probability to be greater than zero. The developed method has proved to be a reliable tool to support decision making and can be applied to several scenarios. The scenario adopted for the design of the photovoltaic system presented a 95.2% probability of returning with an NPV above zero and this makes it economically feasible. The main contribution of this paper is the replicability of the methodology used for other economic analysis studies.


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