project
environment. To do this, computer simulation is used, which provides a
systematic consideration of many variable agrometeorological components of the
design environment and their impact on the limitation of the time allocated for
work. This improves the quality of the database for forecasting the events of
the components of the project environment, as well as gaining knowledge that
underlies the acceleration of management decisions in projects of chemical
protection of crops. It is established that the duration of agrometeorological
determined daily fund of time for work in projects of chemical protection of
agricultural crops is variable both during the life cycle of the project and in
certain periods of its implementation, which is reflected by the relevant
distribution laws. Further research on the planning of chemical protection
projects for agricultural crops should be conducted to justify new methods and
models of management decisions that will take into account the impact of
changing events of the agrometeorological component of the project environment
on the time and content of work in these projects.
Keywords: Projects;
Planning; Events; Works; Agrometeorological Component; Chemical Protection;
Agricultural Crops
1.
INTRODUCTION
Every year, agricultural enterprises
of Ukraine and the world, suffer significant losses of their crops from harmful
objects (weeds, pests, and diseases). These losses in some years can reach 30%
(Tryhuba et al., 2014; Tryhuba et al., 2019). To prevent them, chemical plant
protection is used, which involves applying to the surface of crops in certain
phases of their growth and development of a solution of appropriate chemicals.
To this end, appropriate projects
are initiated, which may provide for the centralized implementation of work on
chemical protection of crops in a given region. Effective performance of
chemical plant protection work requires the use of a design approach that takes
into account the systemic relationships between the components of the design
environment and the content and timing of the work, as well as the need for
resources.
The agrometeorological component of
the project environment, which is a limiting factor in the duration of these
works, has a significant impact on the content and timing of works in these
projects (Fraisse et al., 2006; Islam et al., 2017; Roy, 2019; Rudynets et al., 2019). At the same time,
there is a need to use tools for planning work in projects of chemical
protection of agricultural crops (PCPAC), which takes into account the
agrometeorological component of their design environment.
For this purpose, it is necessary to
have models of change of time fund for the performance of works in PCPAC for
the set region which underlies planning of the specified works.
2.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Solving management problems to
determine the duration of work in projects and the impact on them of the
project environment are based on the characteristics of the subject area and
models and methods of project management (Hulida et al., 2019; Ratushny et al., 2019; Bashynsky, 2019).
In the scientific works (Pavlikha et al., 2019; Ratushny et al., 2019; Tryhuba et al., 2020) the analysis of the
possibility of using project management tools to solve management problems to
justify the duration of work. These models and methods involve the use of
traditional approaches that do not take into account the specifics of the
subject area.
Some authors in their works (Syrotiuk et al., 2020; Tryhuba et al., 2020) solve scientific and
applied problems of substantiation of management decisions in agricultural
production projects, which are based on forecasting processes. Their main
advantages are taking into account the specifics of agricultural production.
However, their use to determine the duration of work in the PCPAC is
impossible, as they do not take into account the peculiarities of the
agrometeorological component of the design environment.
In some works (Bazzaz et al., 1996; Lobell et al., 2007; Serrano et al., 2004; Boychenko et al., 2007) their authors propose to take into account the features of the
agrometeorological component of the project environment, which requires the use
of a personalized approach to justify management decisions. The research of
some authors in this direction is performed in relation to the planning of
agricultural production projects (Тryhuba et al., 2019; Тryhuba et al., 2020). However, all the above authors in
their scientific works did not pay enough attention to the study and analysis
of the impact of the agrometeorological component of the project environment on
the implementation of PCPAC for a given region.
The available scientific papers have
not considered the causal links between works and events with the probable time
of their occurrence, which makes it impossible to effectively plan PCPAC for a
given region (Тryhuba et al., 2019a; Тryhuba et al., 2019b). In
particular, this applies to forecasting the content and timing of works, the
need for resources, and the budget of projects, taking into account the
changing characteristics of the agrometeorological component of their design
environment for the specified parameters of technical support. This is the main
reason for making erroneous management decisions when planning PCPAC. These
arguments indicate the need to identify the events that underlie the
development of new methods and models for PCPAC planning.
Therefore, the existing methods and
models of project planning do not take into account the probable nature of the
time of occurrence of events that determine the need to perform work in PCPAC,
and, accordingly, this is the main reason for making wrong decisions when
planning work and determining resource requirements.
Thus, there is a scientific and
applied problem for substantiation of the approach to determining the fund of
time of works in PCPAC, as well as models of events of the agrometeorological
component of their design environment, which determine the duration of works
for a given region. The formulated problem is solved in the article, which
confirms its scientific and practical value.
The purpose and objectives of the study.
The purpose of the work is to develop an approach and substantiate the
knowledge base that provides a definition of the time fund of work in the
PCPAC, taking into account the changing events of the agrometeorological
component of the project environment.
To achieve this goal should solve
the following tasks:
·
to
propose an approach to determining the time fund of work in the PCPAC, taking
into account the changing events of the agrometeorological component of the
project environment;
·
substantiate
the model of changing events, which is the basis for determining the time fund
of work in the PCPAC.
3.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
One of the components of the project
environment, which directly affects the content and timing of work in the
PCPAC, is agrometeorology. The agrometeorological component is characterized by
basic and derivative events that are stochastic in nature and, accordingly,
determine the probable beginning and duration of work in projects.
The basic events of the
agrometeorological component of the project environment in the PCPAC projects
include precipitation time; the time when the temperature exceeds 25оС; dew
disappearance time; the time when the wind speed exceeds 5 m/s. A derivative
agrometeorological event is a time when agrometeorological conditions are
favourable for the performance of work on PCPAC.
The experience of previous projects
is used to substantiate the event models of the agrometeorological component of
the PCPAC. In particular, on the basis of passive experiments, the collection,
and analysis of statistical data of agrometeorological stations, namely the
time of occurrence of the above agrometeorological events, the time of their
cessation, and their quantitative value.
Collection of statistical data on
the events of the agrometeorological component of the project environment is
performed on the basis of archival materials of meteorological stations (Тryhuba et al., 2019d; Ljaskovska et al., 2018). In particular, the journals KM-1 (Book of Meteorological Observations)
are processed, in which daily observations on the characteristics of
agrometeorological conditions in a particular day are recorded. The obtained
data are entered into the developed special registration forms.
Statistical information on the time
of occurrence of the events of the agrometeorological component of the PCPAC is
processed for the period (April – August). As a result of this study, an
empirical series of fine and non-fine periods of time are obtained. The
criteria for assessing the suitability of a particular day include 1) the
presence of a light period of time of day; 2) the air temperature did not
exceed 25оС; 3) air velocity did not exceed 5 m/s; 4) no
precipitation; 5) lack of dew (Bashynsky, 2019).
All components of agrometeorological
events are the basis for the substantiation of models of daily time funds for
work in PCPAC. The analysis of individual agrometeorological events shows that
in some months of the season of work on PCPAC (April – August) their presence
and quantitative characteristics are modified. In particular, in April there
are much fewer days with dew than in July or August.
Also in April, there are much fewer
time intervals when the air temperature exceeds 25oC, compared to the summer
months. Regarding the speed of air movement, in May and June, there are many
more days compared to other months, where it exceeds 5 m/s. This indicates that
the agrometeorological component of the PCPAC project environment during the
season can be adequately reflected only by the models of the daily fund of work
time in certain months.
Agrometeorological acceptable fund
of time of performance of works on PCZS in a separate day is defined from an
expression
(1)
where 
– duration of light interval in і-th day j-th
month, h; 
– duration of light interval in і-th day j-th
month, during which there is dew, h; 
– duration of light interval in і-th
day j-th month, during which the air velocity exceeds 5m/s, h; 
– duration of light interval in і-th
day j-th month, during which the air temperature exceeds 25оС, h.
The duration of the light interval
is determined from the expression
(2)
where 
– the time of occurrence of the beginning of
daylight in і-th day j-th month, h; 
– the time of occurrence of the
event of cessation of daylight in і-th day j-th month, h.
The duration of the light period
during which the available dew is determined from the expression
(3)
where 
– the time of occurrence of the event of dew
in і-th day j-th month, h; 
– the time of occurrence of the
event of cessation of dew in і-th day j-th month, h.
If on a particular day the dew was
absent, then 
h. If the condition 
performed, then accepted 
h. If the condition 
performed, then accepted 
h.
The duration of the light period
during which the air velocity exceeds 5 m/s is determined from the expression
(4)
where
– respectively, the time of
occurrence of events when the wind speed exceeds 5 m/s and less than 5 m/s, h; 
– the number of time intervals during the day
when the wind speed exceeds 5 m/s.
The duration of the light period of
time during which the air temperature exceeds 25oC is determined from the
expression
(5)
where 
– respectively, the time of
occurrence of events when the air temperature exceeds 25oC and less than 25oC,
h; – the number of time intervals during the day
when the air temperature exceeds 25оС.
4.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
In order to substantiate the models
of the duration of fine weather and bad weather periods of time, we used the
data of the Yavoriv Meteorological Station, located in the Lviv region. For
this purpose, information was collected on the agrometeorological conditions of
each individual day of the PCPAC work season (from April 1 to August 31) during
1982-2018. The main criteria for assessing the suitability of a particular day
were: 1) the presence of a light period of time of day; 2) the air temperature
did not exceed 25oC; 3) air velocity did not exceed 5 m/s; 4) no precipitation;
5) lack of dew (Bashynsky, 2019).
Statistical processing of the
obtained information on fine weather and bad weather periods made it possible
to determine their numerical characteristics, as well as to substantiate the
theoretical distribution laws, which agree on the three-parameter Weibull
distribution laws, the density function of which has the form (Figure 1,
2):
– for
fine weather periods of time
(6)
– for
bad weather periods of time
(7)
The statistical characteristics of
these distributions have the following meanings: estimates of mathematical
expectation – 
days and 
days; estimates of standard deviation – 
days and 
days.
Figure 1: Density and
function of for fine weather periods of time
Figure 2: Density and function of for bad
weather periods of time
It is established that each of the
months of the PCPAC work season the daily time fund differs because the time
and number of basic agrometeorological events (time of onset and cessation of
daylight hours; precipitation time; the time when the temperature exceeds 25оС;
dew disappearance time; the time when wind speed exceeds 5 m/s) in some months
are different.
Statistical processing of the
received information on the agrometeorological determined daily fund of time
for performance of works in PCPAC allowed to define their numerical
characteristics, and also to substantiate theoretical laws of distribution and
their characteristics (table 1.).
Table 1:
Characteristics of distributions of agrometeorological determined daily time
fund for performance of works in PCPAC, h
|
Month
|
The law of distribution
|
Distribution
function
|
Numerical
characteristics
|
|
 h
|
|
|
April
|
Weibull
|
|
7,53
|
0,57
|
|
May
|
Normal
|
|
8,91
|
0,48
|
|
June
|
Weibull
|
|
9,18
|
0,56
|
|
July
|
Weibull
|
|
8,42
|
0,56
|
|
August
|
Weibull
|
|
7,32
|
0,61
|
From
the table, it is seen that the characteristics of the agrometeorological
determined daily fund of time are variable and depend on the month of the
season of work in the PACCP. The obtained results indicate that the
mathematical expectation of the agrometeorological determined daily fund of
time from the beginning of the season of work in PCPAC (April) increases to its
middle, where in June it reaches its maximum value and decreases again by the
end of the season. In addition, the limits of the confidence interval change
similarly.
According to the results of the
obtained data, the tendency of changing the mathematical expectation of the
agrometeorological determined daily fund of time for performance of works in
PCPAC 
during the season is constructed (figure 3).
Figure 3: The tendency to change the mathematical expectation of the
agrometeorological determined daily fund of time for performance of works in
PCPAC 
during a
season.
It is described by a polynomial of
the third degree:
. (8)
Thus, the time of occurrence of the
events of the agrometeorological component of the project environment on a
particular day is probable, which determines the variable duration of the
agrometeorological daily time fund for work in the PCPAC 
during the season. The obtained models of
agrometeorological determined daily time funds are the basis for planning work
with PCPAC.
5.
CONCLUSIONS
To propose an approach to
determining the time fund of work in the PCS, taking into account the changing
events of the agrometeorological component of the project environment is based
on the use of statistical data of agrometeorological stations in the regions
where these projects are implemented.
The peculiarity of this approach is
that the formation of databases and knowledge is based on the characteristics
of a given design environment through computer simulation, which systematically
takes into account many variable agrometeorological components of the design
environment and their impact on time constraints. This is the basis for
improving the quality of database formation for forecasting the events of the
components of the project environment, as well as obtaining the knowledge that
underlies the acceleration of management decisions in PCPAC.
Mathematical processing of the
official data of the agrometeorological station allowed to substantiate
statistical models of the time for events occurrence of the agrometeorological
component of the project environment, which take into account the causal
relationships between them, identified on the basis of previous projects.
It is established that the duration
of agrometeorological determined daily fund of time for performance of works in
PCPAC is variable during a life cycle of the project, and in separate periods
of its performance that is reflected by the corresponding laws of distribution
(table 1). Further research on PCPAC planning should be conducted to
substantiate new methods and models of management decisions that will take into
account the impact of changing events of the agrometeorological component of
the project environment on the time and content of work in these projects.
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INFLUENCE
OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL COMPONENT OF THE PROJECT ENVIRONMENT ON THE DURATION OF
WORKS IN CHEMICAL PROTECTION PROJECTS OF AGRICULTURAL CROPS