METHODOLOGICAL
INSTRUMENTS FOR CHOOSING A STRATEGY FOR THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
REGION
Bryukhovetskaya
Natalya Ye.,
Institute
of the Economy of Industry of the NAS,
E-mail:
Bryukhovetskaya@nas.gov.ua
Korytko
Tetyana Yu
Institute
of the Economy of Industry of the NAS,
E-mail: taniakorytko@gmail.com
Submission: 10/31/2019
Revision: 11/9/2019
Accept: 11/22/2019
ABSTRACT
The main objectives of this work are the
development of methodological instruments for choosing a strategy to ensure the
sustainable development of the region. This is a study of methods of survey and
in-depth interviews. Methodological instruments have been developed to select
the region’s sustainable development strategy in the context of
decentralization. The level of financial stability is determined by the
integral indicator using multiple regression modeling. The risk of reducing the
sustainable development of the region is calculated by identifying credit,
political, general economic, socio-demographic, natural-environmental and
investment risks by determining the values of losses and the likelihood of
risk, followed by making a risk map. It has been suggested selecting the
strategy for ensuring the sustainable development of the region on the basis of
a matrix that includes the values of the integral indicator of financial
stability and the index of risk of losing the sustainable development of the region.
With the use of theses methodological instruments, a strategy was chosen to
ensure the sustainable development of the region in emergency conditions using
the example of a part of the
Keywords: strategy, region, financial sustainability, risk, risk map
1.
INTRODUCTION
Successful development of a region
depends on the prospects and on the given opportunities, and on the ways they
are used to give high standards of living to people. Ensuring of the sustainable development of
the region is a topical issue of the current social and economic development of
the country.
The most recent development of the
region’s economy to the region occurs under the unsatisfactory challenges of
the environment. In this situation the development and effective instruments
the state regulation policy is a necessary condition of the regional
development. One of the most important functions of the regional authorities is
the strategy of the sustainable development of the region as the basis of maximization
of regional competitiveness of business and improvement of the population
quality of life.
The fundamentals of the theory of
sustainable development were formulated in the early 1990s, the idea of a
dynamic and balanced development of the economy, nature and society is
justified in a number of UN documents, and international agreements have been
concluded.
The aim of the study is to develop
the methodological instruments for choosing a strategy for ensuring the
sustainable development of a region in a decentralized environment. The
hypothesis of the study: the choice of a regional development strategy requires
consideration of its financial sustainability and the risk of reducing the
sustainable development, which should be provided with appropriate
methodological instruments.
The structure of this study reflects
the formed research-and-scientific goal. The first section of this article
examines the essence of strategic planning at the regional level. The second
section is devoted to technology of the selection strategies for the
sustainable development of the region in the context of decentralization. The
results are discussed in the third section. At the end of this paper we discuss
objections, replies, and clarifications.
2.
LITERATURE REVIEW
For
effective implementation of strategic planning, it is necessary to know and
understand its essence. The dynamic development of market processes in
Understanding the essence of the
concept of “strategic planning” is constantly changing and acquiring a new
meaning under the influence of factors of the region modern development (Amosha, 2006; Schendel, 1972; Higgins, 1983; Pearse, 1985; Bila,
2011; Pyshkar, 2008). The modern view of the regional strategic
management requires taking into account the peculiarities of adapting the
methodological instruments to modern realities, as well as further research on
issues related to the methodology of implementing the strategic management
system.
Strategic planning occupies a
central position in the system of strategic management, which ensures the
interaction of two other elements - the development of a strategy and the
implementation of this strategy.
The existence and development of the
region in modern conditions necessitate the use of the basic provisions of the
strategic planning and the formulation of a clear strategy for ensuring the
sustainable development of the region (Tishchenko,
2010) Therefore, it is important to understand the essence of the concept of
"strategy". In the economic literature there is a fairly large number
of definitions of strategies that are different in their essence and those that
reflect the philosophical, procedural, behavioral, effective, structural and
other aspects of this category. Thus, the organizational and economic essence
of the strategy for ensuring the sustainable development of the region should
be considered in three dimensions of this concept.
In the framework of the first
approach, the strategy of ensuring the sustainable development of the region is
considered as a documented expression about the desired future state of the
economy and social sphere of the region and about the system of measures and
resources used by the authorities to approximate this future (Ansoff, 1990; Tishchenko, 2010).
In the second approach, a
strategy is defined as a strategic development plan, which is a specific
long-term plan for achieving a specific goal, and the formation of a strategy
is the process of finding a specific goal and drawing up a long-term plan. Such
an approach is based on the fact that all changes in the environment are
predictable, they are determined and can be controlled and managed (Doyle, 2006; Sharov,
2002; Mintzberg, 1987; Mescon, 1981; Thompson, 2013; Hershun, 2005;
Tarasova, 2019).
In
accordance with the third approach, the strategy is considered as a process
that is a system of documents on strategic management in conjunction with
organizational structures and procedures, setting specific, constantly
reproducible strategies for developing strategies and ensuring the
implementation of strategic goals and objectives (Matviyenko, 2005; Kakashnikova, 2008; Pukhyr, 2005; Cherevko, (2007).
Thus, the strategy of sustainable
development of the region is a conceptual document of regional strategic planning,
reflecting the main activities, goals, priorities and means of regional policy
to ensure the sustainable development of the region in the long term prospect
in conditions of a sluggish military conflict and reduced industrial potential
and territory.
The
modern development of the regional economy is influenced by the adverse
challenges of the external environment. Crisis trends in the economy make it
necessary to determine the quantitative characteristics of influence in the
socio-economic environment (Aharkov, 2009).
In this situation, a
prerequisite for regional development is the development and application of
effective instruments of state regulation policy. One of the most important
functions of regional authorities in emergency conditions is the formation of a
strategy to ensure the sustainable development of the region as the basis for
maximizing the regional competitive advantages of business and preserving the
quality of life of the population.
3.
METODOLOGY
The technology of choosing a strategy
for ensuring the sustainable development of the region in emergency conditions
is shown in Figure 1.
· Stage 1. Definition of a mission. The
mission is a steady increase in the level and quality of life of the
population, it is ensured by the development of economic potential and the
social sphere, by increasing the involvement of the population in solving the
problems of the region.
· Stage 2. The definition of strategic goals
and the establishment of causal relationships between them should be carried out
in the form of a strategic map.
· Stage 3. Outlining and classification of
the factors that influence the sustainable development of the region in
emergency conditions. This stage includes the analysis of the external and
internal environment of the region functioning.
To analyze the factors of the
external and internal environment of the region that affect its sustainable
development, you should:
· determine the composition of factors
of the external and internal environment of the region;
· trace the stages of the
decomposition of the strategy into the scorecard;
· identify those areas that most
directly or indirectly affect sustainable development;
· select specific factors of the
external and internal environment of the region that influence the formation of
the strategy;
· analyze the influence of the
selected factors.
The main factors of the external
environment that influence the development of the region are: economic actors,
authorities, and social and political processes outside the region.
The most important is to take into
account specific mechanisms of interaction (change of which does not always
lead to a change in strategy, but should be reflected in the action plan of
regional authorities) with key environmental groups for the region, such as
government, international corporations, etc. Taking into account the complexity
of the region as a socio-economic system, and the fact that internal factors
will primarily affect the choice of strategy, internal factors include:
resources (financial, material, labor), business, administration,
infrastructure, and territory.
To analyze the factors of the
external and internal environment, it is advisable to use an effective and at
the same time quite simple SWOT analysis method. This method consists in the
mutual comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the internal environment
and the possibilities and threats of the external environment of the region.
4 stage. Assessment of financial sustainability and the risk of losing
sustainable development in the region. The financial sustainability of the
region is one of the main indicators characterizing the budget capacity, the
possibility of forming its own budget revenues and the total budget revenues of the region.
One of the most important indicators characterizing the possibility of an
economic crisis at the regional level is the low level of financial stability.
By itself, this indicator cannot indicate a crisis, but its deterioration is a
symptom for a more detailed diagnosis of the state at the regional level (BULEEV,
2010).
Figure 1: A generalized chart of
technology of selection strategy for the sustainable development of the region
in a decentralized environment
Source: own research
In order to make a qualitative assessment of financial sustainability
of the region, it is necessary to analyze its level and consider it in
dynamics, Table 1.
Table 1: Matrix of the level of
financial sustainability of the region and its dynamics
|
The
level of financial sustainability |
Type
of financial sustainability |
|
1–0,81 |
absolutely financially sustainable |
|
0,61–0,80 |
financially sound |
|
0,41–0,60 |
relatively stable |
|
0,21–0,40 |
financially unstable |
|
0–0,20 |
crisis |
At this stage it is necessary to
assess the likelihood of each element the risk of reducing the sustainable development
of the region in scores according to Table 2.
Table 2: Graduation the risk of
reducing the sustainable development of the region based on the likelihood of
its occurrence
|
Pqi (scores) |
Risks |
Probability of Ii, % |
Characteristic of event |
|
1 |
Weakly
probable |
0
< Р ≤ 10 |
The
exceptional event |
|
2 |
Not
likely |
10
< Р ≤ 40 |
The
event will unlikely happen |
|
3 |
Probable |
40
< Р ≤ 60 |
The
event will take place with a sufficient degree of probability |
|
4 |
Highly
probable |
60
< Р ≤ 80 |
The
event will take place with high probability |
|
5 |
Expected |
90
< Р ≤ 100 |
The
event must be held |
Probability
interval ranges from 0 to 100%. The risk with a probability of 100% is fully
expected. Determining the likelihood of losing the risk of reducing the
sustainable development of the region made based on peer review.
The next step is similarly assessing the magnitude of potential losses
in values according to Table 3.
Table 3: Grading the risk of
reducing the sustainable development of the region in terms of losses
|
Pqi (points) |
Losses |
The
magnitude of losses (Ii), % |
|
1 |
Minimal |
0
< І <= 20 |
|
2 |
Low |
20
< І <= 40 |
|
3 |
Middle
|
40
< І <= 60 |
|
4 |
High |
60
< І <= 80 |
|
5 |
Maximum |
> 80 |
Further,
the index calculates the risk of reducing the sustainable development of the
region, which is the significance of scoring risk as follows:
Iri = Pqi × Iqi
(1)
where Iri - index risk, in points;
Rqi - the likelihood of risk in points;
Iqi - the
likely magnitude of losses in points.
The next step is to assess the degree of action identified risks, as a
result of which the experts can identify the risk of reducing the sustainable
development of the region.
Thus, if the risk of reducing the sustainable development of the region
index exceeds the acceptable level, it is necessary to identify key risk
factors and develop their complex relation of activities to optimize its value.
However, if the risk of reducing the sustainable development of the region
index within eligibility, this does not mean that the risk does not need to be
managed. In this case, risk management is in working order with constant
revaluation of its level.
Graduation the risk of reducing the sustainable development of the
region depending on the degree of influence given in Table 4.
Table 4: Grading the risk of
reducing the sustainable development of the region, depending on the degree of
impact
|
Influence degree |
Risk index (Iri) |
Characteristics |
|
Minimal |
10 < Ir <= 20 |
The
impact of risk on the financial sustainability of the territorial community
is missing |
|
Low |
20 < Ir <= 40 |
Low
risk of losing financial sustainability of local community. Easily removed,
so are allowable ones. |
|
Middle |
40< Ir
<= 60 |
Leading
to increased financial losses. Required interventions to decreasing |
|
High |
60 < Ir
<= 80 |
High
risk of losing financial sustainability. Required preventive measures |
|
Maximum |
80 < Ir
<= 100 |
Invalid
degree of influence. There is a high probability of loss of financial
sustainability |
Stage
5. Assessment of possible strategic
prospects. Criteria for assessing the degree of achievement of the values of
the planned indicators allow us to judge the degree of achievement of the
implementation of the strategy for ensuring the sustainable development of the
region in emergency conditions. The magnitude of the discrepancy between the
planned and actual results of the implementation of the strategy for ensuring
the sustainable development of the region in emergency conditions makes it
possible to determine not only the direction of its adjustment, but also the
growth in the need for resources.
Stage 6. The choice of strategies to
ensure the sustainable development of the region in emergency conditions. This
choice is based on making a matrix of strategies. One of the indicators for
choosing a strategy for ensuring the sustainable development of the region in
emergency conditions is the type of financial sustainability determined on the
basis of an integral indicator of financial sustainability: absolutely
financially sustainable, financially sustainable; relatively sustainable;
financially unsustainable, crisis. The second component of the matrix for
choosing a strategy for ensuring the sustainable development of the region in
emergency conditions is an index of the risk of losing the sustainable
development of the region.
The matrix for choosing a strategy
for the region's sustainable development in emergency conditions is shown in
Figure 2.
Quadrants 2, 3, 4, 5 (figure 2)
correspond to the strategy of sustainability, which is a focus on existing
activities and their support. This strategy is formed in an environment where
the strategies of growth are unacceptable as a result of the increasing
influence of risk on the sustainable development of the region.
|
Integral indicator of financial
sustainability of the region |
||||||
|
Index of risk of loss of sustainable development of the region |
|
1-0,80 |
0,60-0,80 |
0,40-0,60 |
0,20-0,40 |
0-0,20 |
|
0-0,20 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
|
0,20-0,40 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
|
|
0,40-0,60 |
3 |
6 |
8 |
10 |
11 |
|
|
0,60-0,80 |
4 |
7 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
|
|
1-0,80 |
5 |
9 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
|
Figure 2: Matrix of choosing a strategy for the
sustainable development of the region in emergency conditions
Source: own research
When implementing this strategy, a
moderate influence of risk factors on the sustainable development of the region
is observed. It is necessary to develop and implement measures to overcome the
crisis. Ensuring the stability of development will allow the region to leave
the danger zone of the matrix. Not all development opportunities are feasible.
Stable and dynamic activities will provide an opportunity to a further
improvement of the financial sustainability of the region.
Quadrant 1 (figure 2) corresponds to
the strategy of growth, which is characterized by a dynamic level of
development of the potential for the sustainable development of the region.
When implementing this strategy,
there is a type of absolute financial stability of the region with a minimum
degree of risk. Regional authorities are satisfied with the current growth
rates of the activities of economic entities that operate at the regional
level, the debt volumes have not changed, although there are economic
prerequisites for this. The existing financial potential can provide an
increase in the level of financial stability of the region.
Quadrants 6, 7, 8, 9 (figure 2) are
characterized by a strategy of the sustainability support, which is a process
of ensuring the financial sustainability, taking into account the region’s
gradual transition to a higher level of development and aimed at organizing the
efficient operation of all elements on which the final result of activities
depends.
When implementing this strategy, an
adverse effect of risk factors on the level of the financial sustainability of
the region is observed. Regional government authorities seek to maintain
financial sustainability only by increasing debt. To finance the development of
the region own sources are not enough due to the low efficiency of management.
Financial equilibrium is unsustainable, a crisis is brewing.
Quadrants 10, 11, 12 figure 2 are
characterized by a strategy of containing financial sustainability, which
provides for the achievement and support of financial stability in the
conditions of negative influence of risk factors.
When implementing this strategy,
there is a high level of influence of risk factors on the level of financial
sustainability of the region. One of them is an unsustainable state of the
region's economy. Consequently, the region balances between the danger of
moving to the lowest square of the matrix (if negative trends in changing
financial sustainability prevail) and the prospect of moving to higher squares
(while ensuring positive development trends).
Quadrants 2, 3, 4, 5 (figure 2)
correspond to the strategy of overcoming the instability, which is
characterized by an increase in the negative impact of the crisis and the
unsustainability of the development of the region, as well as a steady downward
trend in the level of financial stability is observed.
When implementing this strategy,
there is a significant impact of risk factors on the level of financial
sustainability of the region. The region is in crisis. To improve the
situation, a complex system of financial and economic recovery is necessary. It
is necessary to achieve increasing the results of financial and economic
activities of economic entities at the regional level. It is advisable in the
future to bring the region closer to potential development limits.
Classification of types of strategy
for the sustainable development of the region in emergency conditions allows
you to search for such a variant of the strategy, which gives the optimal ratio
between the existing capabilities and the desired results of the functioning of
the region. The choice of one or another variant of the strategy for ensuring
the sustainable development of the region in emergency conditions requires the
distribution of the analyzed regions by areas of quantitative assessment of
their financial sustainability, taking into account the risk factor, which
allows regional authorities to choose the optimal strategy.
Stage 7. Assessment of the
effectiveness of the implementation of the strategy for ensuring the
sustainable development of the region in emergency conditions. The formation
and implementation of the strategy to ensure the sustainable development of the
region in emergency conditions is one of the most important steps in strategic
planning. The effectiveness of strategic planning is measured by the size of
the contribution it makes to the achievement of the goals and the
implementation of the tasks set, minus the costs and undesirable consequences
that arise in the formation of the strategic plan and its implementation. In
order to assess the realism of the tasks and determine ways to achieve the
goals, it is necessary to assess the effectiveness of the implementation of the
planned activities.
Stage 8. Adjustment strategy. At
this stage, the indicators achieved by the region are closer to the target, the
adoption of relevant management decisions and measures for their practical
implementation. The ineffectiveness of the implementation of the strategy for
ensuring the sustainable development of the region in emergency conditions necessitates
its adjustment.
The adjustment is carried out in the
following areas:
· strategies in general;
· individual programs adopted as part
of the implementation of the strategy;
· plans for the implementation of the
strategy.
Thus, the use of the suggested
methodological instruments creates a basis for assessing the effectiveness of
the implementation of the strategy for ensuring the sustainable development of
the region in emergency conditions, and allows you to quickly compare and
identify existing positive and negative trends in the implementation of
strategic initiatives.
4.
RESULTS
The implementation of ensuring the
financial sustainability of the region is not possible without conducting
comprehensive monitoring and analysis, allowing assess the effectiveness of the
established system for managing of the sustainable development.
At the first stage, respectively,
with the suggested technology for choosing a strategy for ensuring the
sustainable development of the region in emergency conditions, we will calculate
its level of financial sustainability using the example of the
To carry out the level of financial
sustainability, it is necessary to form an information array, on the basis of
which the formation of a system of groups of indicators takes place, in the
context of the components of a study of the financial sustainability of a
region: financial, demographic, economic, personnel.
By means of multiple regression
modeling, the integral indicator of financial stability of the n-th region in the t-th period is
calculated.
Іфу = a1x1
+ a2x2 + a3x3 +…+ anxn , (2)
where x1,2,3,…n – indicators
that characterize the components of the financial sustainability of the region;
a1, a2,
a3 – regression
coefficients;
a0 – is a free member.
The value of the integral indicator
of financial stability of the
Table
5: The value of the integral indicator of financial stability of the
|
period |
The value of the integral indicator |
||||
|
Financial component |
Demographic component |
Economic component |
Personnel component |
Financial sustainability |
|
|
2014 |
0,791 |
0,751 |
0,693 |
0,596 |
0,720 |
|
2015 |
0,761 |
0,695 |
0,702 |
0,785 |
0,680 |
|
2016 |
0,727 |
0,659 |
0,616 |
0,648 |
0,600 |
Source: own research.
On the basis of the
obtained calculation results, the
One of the urgent problems in the
field of risk analysis of socio-economic systems is the quantitative risk
assessment. Realization of risks for the territory may violate the material
basis of both the region itself and the well-being of the individual (Kuklin, 2017).
At the second stage, we will
calculate the risk of reducing the sustainable development on the example of
the
Table
6: Matrix of risk ranking for reducing sustainable development on the example
of the
|
Name of risk |
Probability Pqi |
The magnitude of losses Ii |
Risk estimation |
||
|
% |
points |
% |
points |
||
|
1. Credit risk |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.1 The risk of insolvency of economic entities that are located in
the region |
60 |
3 |
60 |
3 |
9 |
|
1.2 Credit policy risk |
55 |
3 |
50 |
3 |
9 |
|
1.3 Risk of financial loss |
60 |
3 |
50 |
3 |
9 |
|
2. Political risk |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.1 Legislative change risk |
40 |
3 |
50 |
3 |
9 |
|
2.2 Risk of legislative change |
40 |
3 |
55 |
4 |
9 |
|
2.3 The level of corruption of state structures |
60 |
3 |
45 |
3 |
9 |
|
2.4 The risk of reducing the authority of regional authorities |
40 |
3 |
45 |
3 |
9 |
|
3. General economic risk |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.1 Stability of tax legislation |
30 |
2 |
25 |
2 |
4 |
|
3.2 Inflation risk |
35 |
2 |
40 |
3 |
6 |
|
3.3 The risk of reducing the development of the regional economy |
60 |
3 |
35 |
3 |
9 |
|
3.4 The risk of reducing the official rate of the national currency to
foreign currencies |
50 |
3 |
35 |
3 |
9 |
|
4. Socio-demographic risk |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.1 Population risk |
70 |
4 |
60 |
3 |
12 |
|
4.2 Health Risk Reduction |
50 |
3 |
25 |
2 |
6 |
|
4.3 Risk of declining living standards |
40 |
3 |
40 |
3 |
9 |
|
4.4 Unemployment Risk |
35 |
2 |
55 |
4 |
8 |
|
4.5 Risk of declining education |
25 |
2 |
25 |
2 |
4 |
|
5. Natural and environmental risk |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.1 Risk of sustainable technological actions |
60 |
3 |
55 |
4 |
12 |
|
5.2 Risk of contamination of the natural environment |
75 |
4 |
55 |
4 |
16 |
|
5.3 Risk of reducing naturally agrarian potential |
20 |
1 |
15 |
2 |
2 |
|
6. Investment risk |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6.1 Risk of sensitivity to the environment |
70 |
4 |
35 |
2 |
8 |
|
6.2 Risk of lower capital investment |
60 |
2 |
50 |
4 |
12 |
|
6.3 The risk of reducing businesses that innovate |
55 |
2 |
50 |
4 |
12 |
Source: own research
On the basis of the data
obtained as a result of the survey of experts and systematized in Table 6, we
make a risk map (Figure 3).
|
Ii |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
|
4.5,6.2,6.3 |
|
5.2 |
|
|
|
3 |
|
3.2 |
1.1-1.3 2.1-2.4, 3.3,3.4,4.3 |
4.1 |
|
|
|
2 |
5.3 |
3.1,4.6 |
4.2,5.1 |
6.1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
||
|
Pqi |
||||||
Figure 3: Risk map for reducing the
sustainable development of the
Source: own research
A qualitative assessment of the risk
of reducing sustainable development on the example of the
On the basis of the data obtained
and using the matrix of choice of a strategy for ensuring the sustainable
development of the region in emergency conditions, which is shown in Fig. 2 we
define the appropriate strategy. Consequently, the Donetsk region falls into
quadrant 6, that is, a strategy to support the sustainability, which is the
process of ensuring financial sustainability, taking into account the region’s
gradual transition to a higher level of development and aimed at organizing the
efficient operation of all the elements on which the final result of activities
depends.
5.
CONCLUSIONS
Based on a review of domestic and
foreign literature, the author’s definition of the concept of a strategy of the
sustainable development of the region in emergency conditions
is given as a conceptual document of regional strategic planning reflecting the
main activities, goals, priorities and means of regional policy to ensure the
sustainable development of a region in a long-term military conflict and
reduced industrial potential and territory.
The authors suggested methodological
instruments that allow you to make a choice of a strategy for the sustainable
development of the region in emergency conditions, which, unlike the existing
ones, is to take into account the influence of a risk factor and the level of
financial sustainability of the region in emergency situations.
Testing of the developed
methodological instruments was carried out on the basis of indicators of the
part of the
The developed methodological
instruments form the basis for decision-making by the authorities on the choice
of strategy and assessment of the effectiveness of its implementation in
emergency conditions, which makes it possible to quickly compare and identify
existing positive and negative trends in the implementation of strategic
initiatives, as well as develop an effective risk management system at the
regional level in collaboration with government authorities.
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