Euler Sánchez
Universidade Federal Fluminense, Brazil
E-mail: eulersanchez@id.uff.br
Newton Narciso Pereira
Professor at Universidade Federal Fluminense, Brazil
E-mail: newtonaval@gmail.com
Submission: 2/11/2019
Accept: 2/27/2019
ABSTRACT
Ship recycling is commonly developed in Asian beaches
due to labour cost and legal flexibility. The extraction of steel from ship
recycling makes this activity economically viable and must accomplish with the
labour and environmental requirements. In that way, local steel scrap market in Brazil
presented a deficit of at least 3.0 million / tons in the last 8 years while
not meeting the demand of the local steel and smelting industries. In this
line, we considered the economic potential for developed ship recycling
in Brazilian shipyards, finding an opportunity to meet local demand for steel
scrap of 3.0 million/year - and international demand of 370,000 tons/year, both
means between 2007 and 2017. Finally, we found that there is an opportunity of
implement ship recycling activity in Brazilian shipyards for the extraction of
steel scrap from local ship fleet with market value of US$ 587,51 million.
After considering the premise of serve neighbouring Latin American ship fleets, the volume of steel scrap and market value
increase to US$ 19,94. This scenario could promote an attractive business
and the rotation of the assets for local shipyards.
1. INTRODUCTION
The ship recycling practice consists in the
dismantling of the constituent parts of the ship, so that, each of its parts
must be classified, separated and withdrawn for later disposal (DINU; ILIE, 2015).
Shipbreaking in Asian countries lack safety and
health standards (CHOUDHARY, 2011; HIREMATH; PANDEY;
ASOLEKAR, 2015) most of the dismantling methods do not consider the
challenges of sustainability and environmental practices (WORLD BANK, 2010). The last decade ship breaking industry started to
adopt differential practices, being recognized with the term "ship
recycling" (DEVAULT; BEILVERT; WINTERTON, 2016) because regulations required the handling of various
materials, including toxic, flammable and fluid materials that require
appropriate techniques for their management and disposal (KAISER; BYRD, 2005).
The ship recycling activity generates a
considerable diversity of materials, mainly metals corresponding to 70% or 85%
of ships total weight (JAIN; PRUYN; HOPMAN, 2016). The volume of non-metallic materials varies between
1% and 2% of the ship´s combined weight (ANDERSEN et al., 2001; DEMARIA, 2010). Other gaseous and liquid pollutant arrive to Asian
beaches in the interior of ships, representing a significant threat to the
environment (DEVAULT; BEILVERT; WINTERTON, 2016). Most of these pollutants are unidentified in the
ship's structure, which makes them difficult to track and manage (HOSSAIN; ISLAM, 2006)
To control environmental impacts from ship
recycling industry, the international community and non-governmental
organizations have created mechanisms as Basel Convention (BC) of 1989, the Hong Kong Convention (HKC) in 2009 for
regulate the transboundary movement of hazardous materials between countries
and the traceability of hazardous wastes on-board vessels (IMO, 2009B; SAHU, 2014). Subsequently, the European Parliament create the
Ship Recycling Regulation or SRR - 1257/2013 applied for European vessels and
including additional requirements in terms of safety and environmental
management (YUJUICO, 2014).
The current requirements for developing ship
recycling activity crated the need of standardized shipyards around the globe
to enter in this market (MIKELIS, 2018a). Many countries from Asia as China, Turkey and India
have applied to be approved by the EU commission for recycling European flagged
vessels (MIKELIS, 2018b) because they represent more than 30% of DWT scrapped
every year in Asian beaches (NGO SHIPBREAKING PLATFORM, 2016). In America the Brazilian shipyards and various
stakeholders (internal scrapping sector, steel mill and recycling industries)
are assessing the opportunity to participate in ship
recycling market as a potentially way for steel scrap extraction.
By the end of 2017, Brazilian ship building
market presented an idle construction capacity due to the effects of the oil
and gas crisis (PEREIRA, 2017; PEREIRA; TEIXEIRA, 2017). This idle capacity could be used in decommissioning
and recycling of ships, so that we assessed the potential contribution of
developing ship recycling activity in Brazilian shipyards. In that way, we
considered the local and neighbouring South American ship fleets able to be
recycled and estimated the Light Displacement Tons (LDT) recoverable from those
ships and its market value.
2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
2.1.
Brazilian
vessel construction and repairing industry
The Brazilian shipbuilding and repair industry
have more than 81 years of evolution, since then it has faced different
economic crises (BRANQUINHO; SALOMÃO; DUARTE, 2012). Those economic upsets made necessary to develop
investment policies for boost large-scale modernization and expansion of the
oil fleet, generating a current demand for the naval market (SINAVAL, 2015).
Since then, the shipbuilding industry
concentrated on the construction of structures for exploration and
transportation of oil and gas products (BNDES, 2012; SINAVAL, 2015a). Since then, the industry has been based on the
offshore and oil sector (GUEDES, 2014). As of 2005, the number of jobs generated by the
shipbuilding and repair sector starting increasing significantly reaching
82,472 direct and indirect jobs in 2014 (SINAVAL, 2015a). Because of the economic and political crisis related
with the petroleum and gas sector that began in 2014, there was a fall in the
sector's jobs, going from 82,472 in 2014 to 38,452 effective jobs in 2016 (SINAVAL, 2015b; D’AVILA; BRIDI, 2017)
Actually, in Brazil there are 19 shipyards
dedicated to construction and repair, of which 11 are dedicated to vessels and
specialized ships, six are dedicated to offshore structures, and two serve
offshore structures and other kind of ships. The steel processing capacity to
ship building in tonnes/year for these yards is approximately ± 900,000 (PORTAL NAVAL, 2017; SINAVAL, 2016). Those facilities count with capacity to service
various types of ships, from supply ships, Handymax, Panamax, Aframax and VLCC.
Although Brazil has focused on shipbuilding,
maintenance and repair over the years, ship recycling shows a new perspective
for Brazilian shipyards to increase their productivity, generating employment
and incomes (PEREIRA, 2017; SINDAMAR, 2017). Up to 2017, most of the Brazilian shipyards were
underutilized production capacity generated by the petroleum and gas sector
crisis and could be used for ship recycling (SINDAMAR, 2017).
If these yards wish to participate in the ship
recycling market, they would have to adjust their facilities and processes for
the management and treatment of recyclable and non-recyclable materials, both
of which are fundamental in this activity (OVERGAARD et al., 2013; SINAVAL, 2015a; JAIN; PRUYN; HOPMAN, 2017). In addition, shipyards would have to evaluate their
smaller and larger equipment, infrastructure and macrostructure, technical and
engineering staff in order to adjust their processes (OVERGAARD et al., 2013).
The Erro! Fonte de referência não encontrada. shows the information pertaining to the annual
process capacities in tons/year of Brazilian shipyards.
Table 1: Brazilian shipbuilding and
repairing shipyard´s capacity
Shipyard |
Estate |
Prod.
Ktons. steel/year |
Type of activity |
Area (mil. m2) |
Enseada do Paraguaçu |
BA |
60 |
Offshore |
630 |
Jurong Aracruz |
ES |
48 |
Offshore |
825 |
Atlantico Sul |
PE |
160 |
Vessels and Offshore |
1.000 |
Vard Promar -STX |
PE |
20 |
Specialized vessels |
800 |
Techint |
PR |
40 |
Offshore |
NR |
Rio
Nave |
RJ |
10 |
Specialized vessels |
95 |
Aliança |
RJ |
10 |
Specialized vessels |
61 |
Aliança |
RJ |
10 |
Specialized vessels |
61 |
São
Miguel |
RJ |
5 |
Specialized vessels |
21 |
BrasFels |
RJ |
50 |
Offshore |
410 |
Estaleiro OSX |
RJ |
180 |
Vessels and Offshore |
NR |
QGI |
RS |
80 |
Offshore |
70 |
Estaleiro Rio Grande (Ecovix) |
RS |
13 |
Specialized vessels |
500 |
EBR - Estaleiros do Brasil |
RS |
110 |
Offshore |
NR |
Navship |
SC |
15 |
Specialized vessels |
175 |
Detroit |
SC |
10 |
Specialized vessels |
90 |
Keppel-Sigmarine |
SC |
10 |
Specialized vessels |
77 |
Itajaí |
SC |
12 |
Specialized vessels |
177 |
Estaleiro Oceana |
SC |
20 |
Specialized vessels |
310 |
Wilson, Sons |
SP |
10 |
Specialized vessels |
22 |
Total |
|
883 |
Source: adapted from
SINAVAL (2015); Portal Naval (2017)
These volumes correspond
to the total process capacity for shipbuilding and repairing activities. The
ship recycling activity did not exist in Brazil and it is a limitation to
determinate the ship recycling capacity of these shipyards.
2.2.
Steel
production industry and scrap generation in Brazil
In 2014, the Brazilian
metallurgical sector accounted for 2.1% of world steel production and
represented 52.3% of total Latin American continent production in the same
period (CGEE - MDIC, 2014; INSTITUTO AÇO BRASIL, 2017).
In that way, the Brazilian steel mill is made up of 29 industrial units,
13 of them are integrated and 16 are equipped with electric furnaces. The total
installed capacity is 47.8 million tons of crude steel in 2014 (CGEE - MDIC, 2014). These plants are managed by 11 business groups
(Aperam, AcerlorMittal Brasil, CSN, Gerdau, Sinobras, ThyssenKrupp CSA,
Usinminas, VBS Tubos, V&M do Brasil, Villares Metals e Votorantim (NOGUEIRA, 2013).
The mean of gross steel
production mills from 2007 to 2014 varied between 28 and 34 million tons/year (CGEE - MDIC, 2014; Ministério de Minas e Energia (MME), 2015), and there is a projection for the total production
between 35 and 49 million tons/year from 2017 to 2020 (CGEE - MDIC, 2014; MINISTÉRIO DE MINAS E ENERGIA (MME), 2015).
Both class steel mills
and others steel transforming industries generate scrap by alternative ways,
and it is reintroduced to the metallurgical industry. The share of scrap as
material used by Brazilian steelmakers in the steel production process from 2005
to 2011, varied between 26% and 32% of total material balance consumed (CGEE - MDIC, 2014; INSTITUTO AÇO BRASIL, 2017). This balance allows the reduction of imply
consumption in steel processing of at least 2/3 from the total energy employed
to produce one steel ton (CGEE - MDIC, 2014).
The total volume of scrap consumed by the steel mills
depends on the operational levels of both integrated and electric furnaces (NOGUEIRA, 2013; CGEE - MDIC, 2014). This because they can use three types of steel
scrap, being internal, obsolescence and industrial scrap. In this manner, the
internal scrap corresponds to residual product of the steel production
processes. It basically depends on the degree of integration of the steel mill
downstream. In Brazilian case, a vast portion of output mills corresponds to
semi-finished products (slabs and billets for export). The internal scrap
generated by the Brazilian steel mill units is more than 10% of the crude steel
production (data considered as a national average (CGEE - MDIC, 2014).
The obsolescence scrap
results from another economic segment, but on a more limited scale. This is the
capital consumption and large equipment segment like automobiles, appliances,
silos, storage tanks, among others, that after lifecycle considered by economic
or technical assumptions are transformed in scrap (NOGUEIRA, 2013).
Finally, the industrial
scrap is generated from the steel processing of the industries that consume and
transform this material, being result of losses in the transformation of steel
into final goods or in the residuals of said operations (CONFEDERAÇÃO NACIONAL DA INDÚSTRIA - CNI, 2012).
2.3.
Scrap
recovery through ship recycling activity
Ship recycling activity is an old practice (OSHA, 2010), it is applied on end of life ships with ages typically between 25 and
30 years (UNEP, 2003; CHOUDHARY, 2011; DINU; ILIE, 2015;
HIREMATH et al., 2015). Different key factors are
considered for shipment vessels to recycling, like technical or financial
obsolescence; principally when cost-effectiveness of keeping this asset still
operational is not attractive (DEVAULT et al.,2016; KARLIS et al., 2016; JAIN et al.,
2017). Therefore, this practice consists in decommissioning
of the constituent parts of ships, because it´s an engineering superstructure
and each of its parts could be removed and classified for later reuse and
destination for respective recycling process (DINU; ILIE, 2015).
This industrial activity is heavily practiced in
South Asia countries, but those shipyards have many deficiencies related to the
pertinence of the infrastructures and low labour guarantees required to execute
the industrial process by environmentally and socially sustainable way (CHOI et al., 2016; HOSSAIN; ISLAM, 2006;
KNAPP et al., 2007). There are many negative environmental and social
impacts from ship recycling in Asia (DEMARIA, 2010; FREY, 2013B; CHOI et al., 2016)
This industry generates
recyclable and non-recyclable materials, the first one is reused or recycled,
and they justify the ship recycling practice (HIREMATH; TILWANKAR; ASOLEKAR, 2015). Most part of this kind of materials is metallic and
correspond between 70% and 85% of the overall weight of a ship, ranging from
50% to 70% (ANDERSEN et al., 2001; DEMARIA, 2010; WORLD BANK, 2010). These metals correspond to rolled naval steel, which
is reused by the steel mill industries as plates or common scrap in its steel
processes (DEMARIA, 2010; JAIN; PRUYN; HOPMAN, 2016; JAIN; PRUYN;
HOPMAN, 2017).
2.4.
Ship
recycling regulations
International regulations such as BC, HKC -
2009, SRR 1273/2013 stipulated the set of guidelines and parameters to be met
by shipowners, shipyards and intermediaries involved in ship recycling
activities and transboundary transportation of hazardous materials (EUROPEAN PARLAMIENT & EUROPEAN UNION COUNCIL, 2013; IMO, 2009B;
SECRETARIAT OF THE BASEL CONVENTION, 1989). They should therefore use facilities that include
docks (Dry or Floating), slipways, waterproofed floors, hazardous materials
warehouses, among other equipment like cranes, cutting equipment, and the
preventive measures required to ensure environmentally sound and safe recycling
(OSHA, 2010).
The ship recycling process is constituted by
stages similar to shipbuilding, but obeying to a reverse flow. It can be
differentiated by the non-sustainable processes related with management and
withdrawal of hazardous materials (ANDERSEN et al., 2001; KAISER, 2008; JAIN, 2017). According to (HIREMATH et al., 2015), there are more than ten stages typically adopted by
shipyards in Asia in the ship recycling process.
In other way, (JAIN et al., 2016) assures that the standardization and processing
capacity of the worldwide shipyards destined to shipbuilding and repairing
activities, counts with higher capacity than substandard Asian shipyards, this
due to technical preparation and infrastructure.
Studies related to mapping and treatment of the
materials extracted from ship recycling activity, as evidenced in (HOSSAIN; ISLAM, 2006; HIREMATH et al., 2015a; HIREMATH et al., 2015; DEVAULT
et al., 2016; JAIN et al., 2017), demonstrate the challenge of this activity
corresponds to the reduction and mitigation of environmental impacts. It
depends on the technical and operational shipyard capacities.
They replicated the most important factor related
with the successful of ship recycling production is productivity, which depends
directly of technical preparation and structural shipyard´s capacity, which
could be improved via simulation or modelling.
In this sense, Brazil counts with shipyards
destined to shipbuilding and repair, the annual steel processing, many of these
facilities have dry docks and docks, others rely on mooring berths supported by
cranes (MINISTÉRIO DOS TRANSPORTES, 2017; PORTAL NAVAL, 2017). Thus, although Brazilian shipyards were designed for
construction and repair, recycling would represent a process of less complexity
in relation to construction and repair. Then, it is possible that the recycling
capacity in LDT/year is even greater. In addition, these facilities count with
an environmental operating license, an entire operational chain that consists
of a network of service providers for the treatment of materials.
3. RESEARCH PROBLEM
The crisis in the Brazilian shipbuilding and
repair sector attenuated since 2014 had created unproductiveness in local
shipyards. Therefore, different stakeholders involved in this industry have
been economically affected (PEREIRA; TEIXEIRA, 2017; SINDAMAR, 2017). The search for different productive activities has
let these stakeholders to study ship recycling activity as a productive
alternative for local shipyards, however, without substantial technical
advances. international legislation as SRR and HKC has required ships to be
recycled exclusively through sustainable methods on facilities with
appropriated capacity and structures (IMO, 2009; EUROPEAN PARLAMIENT; COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION., 2013).
Consequently, specialist ensure that ship
recycling techniques are a less complex process compared to shipbuilding and
repairing (JAIN, 2017). Hence, is possible to infer the possibility of
Brazilian shipyards to take advantage of their structures and standardization
for develop ship recycling activities.
Finally, the steel mill and smelting industry in
Brazil shows itself as a potential consumer of scrap, there is a deficit in the
local scrap supply demanded for the manufacture of steel products. Thus, the
larger the proportion of scrap implemented in steel production, the greater
economy in the manufacturing process (CONFEDERAÇÃO NACIONAL DA INDÚSTRIA - CNI, 2012; CGEE - MDIC, 2014;
INSTITUTO AÇO BRASIL, 2017).
3.1.
Hypotheses
The extraction of steel
scrap thought ship recycling industry results in an economically viable
alternative for the Brazilian shipbuilding industry and for the internal steel
scrap market.
The following premises
were considered with the purpose of evaluating the hypothesis:
a)
Demand for steel scrap
due to local production from the steel and foundry industry would leverage ship
recycling as a new niche market for local shipyards;
b)
The volume of steel
scrap available in the Brazilian local market and its negotiation in
international markets indicates a commercial possibility for the extraction of
scrap from ship recycling;
c)
The recycling of vessels
belonging to the Brazilian fleet can serve as a supplier of steel scrap to the
local steel and smelting industries;
In this way, the
following variables were defined to helped the hypothesis corroboration:
I.
Offer and demand of
domestic steel scrap;
II.
volume of steel scrap
traded by Brazil in the international market;
III.
the potential volume of
steel scrap extractable from the recycling of Brazilian ships and other neighbouring
ship fleets;
IV.
market value (US $) of
steel scrap extractable from Brazilian and other neighbouring ship fleets;
4. METHODOLOGY
We make a symmetrical
relationship analysis between the information of variables (I), (II), (III),
(IV) and (V) in order to identify their relationship and used them to make an
inductive analysis. The methodological sequence is described above.
Figure 1: methodology flow process
The research was divided into
two fronts, thus, they correspond to
the analysis of the supply and demand
of steel scrap (left of the flow) and
the estimation of the steel scrap potentially withdrawn
through the recycling of ships (flow right).
4.1.
Local
steel production and scrap market
We collected data from
Brazilian gross steel production, using the statistical yearbook of the Steel
Brazilian Institute (INSTITUTO AÇO BRASIL, 2017), the report of steel and the pig iron production
levels for Brazilian steel industry, both projected up to 2020 (CGEE - MDIC, 2014). We also analysed the data of total steel scrap generated
from the Brazilian steelmaking activities, for this we considered the three
most common sources of scrap generation in the local market (obsolescence
scrap, Industrial scrap, internal return scrap)
(INSTITUTO AÇO BRASIL, 2017), so that we characterized the variable (I).
On the other hand, the
international trade of steel and iron steel scrap in Brazil were analysed,
using the records about volumes and prices of steel scrap trade balance
(imports and exports) consolidated in the commerce combined nomenclature - CCN
- 7204 registered by the Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services (ALICE WEB, 2017). So that, were possible to characterized the variable
(II).
In order to perform the
characterization of variable (II), we compared the scrap price practiced in
local market within international scrap market price, especially with those
prices practiced on Asian ship recycling market. This approach was assumed to
compare the similarity between national and international steel scrap price
traded.
4.2.
Steel
scrap from ship recycling
We consider two
scenarios for estimating the potential of ship recycling scrap market for
Brazilian shipyards. First, we estimated the extractable steel scrap (LDT)
taking account the potential number of ships to being recycled from the
Brazilian ship fleet. Secondly, we considered the potential number of ships to
being recycled from Latin American ship fleets. Both scenarios considered the
possibility of ship recycling process being developed in Brazilian shipyards.
To obtain the number of
ships from the Brazilian ship fleet, we used the National Water Transport
Agency (Agência Nacional do Transporte Aquaviário - ANTAQ) databases, which
provides detailed characteristics of each ship, between them DWT, GT, Year of
construction, etc. So that, were found approximately 2.259 ships pertaining to
the Brazilian fleet.
To obtain the number of
ships available from the Latin American fleets, we consulted the opened access
UNCTADstat as describe in (Table 2), section 4.3. After that, we get the DWT,
GT, year of construction among other structural parameters of each ship for the
10 fleets consulting the opened access Marine-Traffic database.
Finally, all ships where
group and treated in four classifications: (1) Tanker, (2) Bulk Carrier, (3) General
Cargo / Ro-Ro / Reefer and (4) Container / Others. For each classification was
utilized a conversion factor to get either DWT from GT and LDT from DWT as
describe in section 4.4, those factors were already used by (STOPFORD, 2003; ECORYS, 2005; CHOUDHARY, 2011). Through those estimations where possible to get the
information for characterized the variable (III).
4.3.
Latin
American fleet criteria selection
To select the 10 Latin
American ship fleets to being analysed, we consulted the maritime merchant
profile registered on UNCTADstat till November 2017, so that the number of
ships by country fleet were used as a criteria selection, getting the fleet
profile summarized in Table 2.
Table 2: Number of vessels
consulted by country fleet
Country |
# Marine Traffic records consulted |
% Total records |
DWT 1 - (records consulted) |
DWT 2 - (UNCTADStat) |
% DWT 1 vs DWT 2 |
Panama |
3,697 |
70.02% |
169,359,682 |
332,877,600 |
53% |
Bahamas |
1,062 |
20.11% |
56,033,732 |
56,033,732 |
70% |
Mexico |
160 |
3.03% |
1,281,599 |
1,281,599 |
75% |
Chile |
97 |
1.84% |
1,324,921 |
1,324,921 |
100% |
Ecuador |
69 |
1.31% |
452,259 |
452,259 |
100% |
Argentina |
49 |
0.93% |
548,708 |
548,708 |
88% |
Bermuda |
43 |
0.81% |
2,258,403 |
2,258,403 |
21% |
Venezuela |
42 |
0.80% |
1,246,714 |
1,246,714 |
69% |
Colombia |
37 |
0.70% |
83,344 |
83,344 |
81% |
Uruguay |
24 |
0.45% |
58,961 |
58,961 |
100% |
Total registers |
5,280 |
Source: Adapted from UNCTADStat
(2017)
4.4.
Estimating
the scrap available for recycling
After quantifying the
number of vessels available for recycling pertaining to both group of fleets
(Brazilian and Latin American) we consider only ships larger than 500 DWT in
the estimation, due to its steel scrap quantity contribution, this selection
criteria was utilized by (JAIN, 2017) accordingly to the application of the HKC for ships.
After this
classification, we estimate the potential tons of steel scrap (LDT) for both
group of fleets. For this, a commercial ship lifespan of 25 years for all
vessels since its manufacture´s year was adopted, like used in many maritime
econometric analyses (ANDERSEN et al., 2001; KAISER; BYRD, 2005; FREY, 2013; DINU; ILIE, 2015;
HIREMATH et al., 2015)
Subsequently, to carry
out the LDT estimation, the conversion factors from (Table 3) were applied to
the DWT and GT vessels parameters (CHOUDHARY,
2011; DINU; ILIE, 2015; FREY, 2013; HIREMATH et al., 2015).
The total LDT that can
be extracted from each ship, excluding the non-constituent weights of its
structure was estimated employing the method presented by (STOPFORD, 2003; ECORYS, 2005; CHOUDHARY, 2011). Then, we could characterize the analysis variable
(IV).
Table 3: Conversion factors for
calculate LDT
Tonnage Factor |
Tanker |
Bulk Carrier |
General Cargo, Ro-Ro, Reefer |
Container, Others |
DWT using GT |
1.75 |
1.70 |
1.44 |
1.00 |
LDT using DWT |
0.30 |
0.33 |
0.44 |
0.34 |
Source: Adapted from
Stopford (2003), ECORYS (2005), and Choudhary (2011)
Considering that steel
scrap prices in the local and international markets are similar, they were used
to estimate the market value (US $) of recoverable scrap from Brazilian ship
and neighbouring ship fleets through development of ship recycling activities
in local shipyards. This estimation is developing in section (5.4 e 5.5) in
this way was characterized the variable (III). The steeps describe in
methodology process are summarized in the next flowchart:
Figure 2: Methodology flowchart
5. RESULTS
5.1.
5.1
Steel production and scrap generation in Brazilian
In 2017, the total steel scrap generated in Brazil from steel foundry
mill industries and other sectors which process and transform the steel was
15.2 Million tons /year (Mty), while the total scrap demanded was approximately
18.7 Mty. This situation shows that there is an unsatisfied scrap demand on the
steel and foundry industry (CONFEDERAÇÃO NACIONAL DA INDÚSTRIA - CNI, 2012; CGEE - MDIC, 2014).
According to Alice-web
databases from 2007 to 2016, Brazil exported an average of 2.8% of the total
scrap available in the internal market (370,000 tons/year), while imports
represented 0.4% of the domestic demand for steel scrap (49,000 tons/year)
considering different types of steel scrap (ALICE WEB, 2017; OLIVEIRA, 2014).
The Table 4 shows the data of steel production in Brazil broken
down by type of furnaces (integrated industry and electrical) from 2007 to
2014. These data were collected from the Centre for Management of Strategic
Studies in Brazil – (Centro de Gerenciamento de Estudos Estratégicos do Brasil
- CGEE), the industry and commerce development Ministery (Ministério do
Desenvolvimento da Indústria e Comercio MDIC) and the Ministry of Mines and
Energy (Ministério de Minas e Energia - MME).
Table 4: Gross steel production and
return scrap generation – Mty
|
Steel production |
|
||
Year |
Electric Furnace |
Integrated Industry |
Total (mi-ton) |
Return steel scrap generation |
2007 |
8.1 |
25.7 |
33.8 |
3.4 |
2008 |
7.9 |
25.8 |
33.7 |
3.4 |
2009 |
6.3 |
20.2 |
26.5 |
2.7 |
2010 |
7.8 |
25.1 |
33.0 |
3.3 |
2011 |
8.2 |
27.0 |
35.2 |
3.5 |
2012 |
8.1 |
26.4 |
34.5 |
3.5 |
2013 |
8.6 |
25.6 |
34.2 |
3.4 |
2014 |
8.4 |
25.5 |
33.9 |
3.4 |
2015 |
7.2 |
26.0 |
33.3 |
3.3 |
2016 |
7.1 |
24.2 |
31.3 |
3.1 |
Source: Adapted from CGEE - MDIC (2013); MME (2015); Instituto Aço
Brasil (2017)
The table clearly shows
the predominance of the integrated steel industries, to the detriment of the
electric arc power plants, thus, the greater participation in the generation of
return scrap obeys the plants of the first type. Figure 3 summarizes data of total Brazilian steel production
from both types of mills from 2007 to 2016. It is worth clarifying that the
annual steel production corresponds to backward series.
Figure 3: Brazilian steel production
(2007 - 2016)
Source: Adapted from CGEE - MDIC (2014); Ministério de Minas e Energia -
MME (2015); Instituto Aço Brasil (2017)
It is possible to
observe that steel production showed few fluctuations in the previous years,
except, 2009 which is probably linked to the international economic crisis.
Thus, the demand for steel scrap can be considered as a demand with low
variations and accompanying the trends of the local and international economy. Figure 4 shows a historical series from 2005 to 2017 of total
steel scrap demand from steel mills and smelting plants in Brazil. This shows a
deficit in the supply of scrap. When domestic and international scrap prices
are unattractive to steel mills, especially integrated ones, they choose to use
a more considerable proportion of pig iron (CNI, 2012).
Figure 4: Scrap (demand and
generation) in Brazil (2005 – 2017)
Source: Adapted from CNI (2012; CGEE - MDIC (2014); Ministério de Minas
e Energia - MME (2015); Instituto aço Brasil (2017)
Figure 4 shows the difference between scrap demand and its
sources of generation (internal, obsolescence and industrial) corresponds to
the amount of pig iron and other row materials used by steel mills to
complement the balance in steel production. It is clear that there is an
unsatisfied demand for scrap of at least 3.0 million of tons between 2011 and
2017.
Another relevant aspect
to be considered in the Brazilian steel scrap supply and demand equation,
corresponds to imports and exports of this material. Brazil negotiates in
foreign markets scrap of cast iron and waste of iron or steel, them traded
under the international combined trade code (CCN – 7204).
Figure 3 shows the dynamic of the steel scrap market trade, the supply
and demand of the materials are summarized in the CCN - 7204 code between 2006
and 2017.
Figure 5: Trade of steel scrap and
derivatives - Brazil (2006 - 2017)
Source: Adapted from
CGEE - MDIC (2014); Alice-web (2017)
According to Figure 5, it is possible to observe in the Brazilian trade
balance corresponding to CCN - 7204 that exportation of scrap, waste iron and
steel have a more significant share compared to importations. Thus, the
information in Figures 2 and 3 show a deficit scenario as the availability of
steel scrap in Brazil, which implies probable difficulties in the steel and
foundry industries before the possibility of expansion of production capacity.
5.2.
The
international Brazilian steel scrap market
Although there is even
now a deficit in the quantity of steel scrap demanded in Brazil, the sale of
Brazilian steel scrap to international markets is evident (Alice Web, 2017). Table 5 shows the comparison between scrap exportations and
local scrap generation indexes, as well as the ratio between the local scrap
demand and the imports of steel scrap.
Table 5: Comparisons between
generation, imports and exports of steel scrap
Source: Adapted from CNI (2012); CGEE - MDIC (2014); Instituto Aço
Brasil (2017); Alice-web (2017)
It is observed that in 2017 approximately 3,6% of scrap available in
local market was exported (ratio between steel scrap generation and steel scrap
exports). According to (MINISTÉRIO DA INDÚSTRIA COMERCIO EXTERIOR E SERVIÇOS - MDIC., 2016), in 2016 at least 78% of Brazil's scrap available was
exported to Asian countries, including Bangladesh (22%), India (17%), Pakistan
(15%), China (0.67%) and other Asian countries (24%).
These destinations
correspond to the same headquarter of South Asian shipyards where the activity
of ship recycling is practiced extensively, making evident that certain part of
the demand of steel scrap of these countries, is being attended through import
practices. One of the justifications for the export of local scrap steel is
underpinned by the parity between steel scrap prices in the domestic and
international markets as shown in table 6 (MINISTÉRIO DA INDÚSTRIA COMERCIO EXTERIOR E SERVIÇOS - MDIC., 2016;
ALICE WEB, 2017).
5.3.
Ship
recycling market estimation through Brazilian fleet
We identified around
2.600 ships with several DWT sizes (100 DWT– 274.000 DWT) from the ANTAQ
database. Moreover, after selecting the ships above 500 DWT, we got only 340
ships for analyse. Thus, a 25-year life span since the construction´s date of
each ship was assumed to estimate the year of recycling, so that only 295
vessels were considered technically capable of recycling between 2018 and 2042
(Figure 6). Other 45 ships were already available for recycling
before 2018 due to being ships with more than three decades of age, so they
were denominated as “ready to recycling”.
For calculating the LDT
extractable from Brazilian ships fleet we applied the conversion factors
mentioned in table 3 using the DWT and GT parameters of each ship. The number
of vessels available to being recycled every year from 2018 to 2042 and its
respectively LDT estimations are shown in Figure 4.
Figure 6: Number of ships and LDT
per year available for recycling from Brazilian fleet (2018 - 2042)
Thus, the absolute
amount of LDT - steel scrap for the 340 ships available for recycling were
estimated in 2.35 million LDT. It is possible to note that the periods with the
highest contributions in LDT are between 2033 and 2040 with a mean of 180.566
LDT in this time series. it is clear that between 2018 and 2042 the quantity of
vessels exhibits semi-cyclical variations which may be linked to the technical
and structural generations of each ship class.
The number of ships available to be recycled between 2018 and 2042 are
shown in a multi-series graph by ship class (1), (2), (3) and (4) and its
equivalent amount of LDT, as shown in Figure 6.
Figure 7: Estimation of LDT
available for recycling from Brazilian fleet by ship´ class (2018 – 2042)
In order to calculate
the market value of ships available for recycling from to Brazilian ship fleet,
an average price for steel scrap quoted in the international market of $250/LDT
was used (JAIN; PRUYN; HOPMAN, 2016; MIKELIS, 2018b). The price was considered due to its similarity with
the export prices traded on Brazilian market (MDIC, 2016). As follows, the
market value per year from 2018 to 2042 can be seen in the Figure 8.
Figure 8: Estimation of market value
of ship recycling market through Brazilian fleet
The total market value
estimation corresponds to US$ 587.51 million taking account the 45 ships
already available for recycling before 2018 and the other 295 ships overspread
from 2018 to 2042.
When comparing the
amount of steel scrap demanded by the domestic steel industries between 2014
and 2016 (Figure 8), and the potential steel scrap generation by
implementation of ship recycling activity, is evident that the ship recycling
yards will be obliged to look for foreign markets to export this material. This
situation evidences the opportunity for Brazil to exploit scrap exports to
Southeast Asian countries because they are currently in high demand for this
type of material at competitive prices.
5.4.
Ship
recycling market estimation through Latin American fleet
In order to increase the
representativeness of develop ship recycling activities in Brazilian shipyards,
we extended the analysis to estimate the number of ships available for recycling
to 10 neighbouring Latin American countries´ fleets. After applying the
criterion selection descried in the methodology, we estimated an overall of
5,280 ships available for recycling. However, when considering the the 25-year
life span since the construction´s date of each ship, we estimated ±4,303
vessels available to being recycled between 2018 to 2042. From total quantity,
approximately 977 ships were already able to being recycled before 2018 due to
their age. Figure 9 shows the number of ships available to being
recycling from 2018 to 2042 and its equivalent in LDT/year.
Figure 9 - Number of ships and LDT
per year available for recycling from Latin American fleets (2018 – 2042)
Thus, the total amount
of steel scrap available in LDT represented by the potential recycling market
of Latin-American ship fleets, considering both series mentioned above, is
±73,35 million LDT. A key consideration is that, these Latin American countries
are closed of Brazilian shipyards and connected from Atlantic Ocean.
Figure 10 shows the volume of potentially retrievable steel
scrap for each of the Latin American fleets that were selected for the
analysis. The order of LDT contribution by country were: Panama (74.37%),
Bahamas (22.9%) and Mexico (0.40%) and the others seven countries with (2.4%).
Eventually, Panama, was the principal contributor (3,697 ships), follow by
Bahamas (1,062 ships) and Mexico (160 ships) and other countries (361 ships),
as shown in figure 8.
Figure 10: Estimation of LDT
available to recycling through Latin American fleet by country
Figure 10 shows the number of ships available for recycling
corresponding to the Latin American fleet between 2018 and 2042 grouped in the
four ship classes.
Figure 11: Estimation of LDT
available for recycling from Latin American fleet by ship´ class (2018 – 2042)
Figure 11 evidences the large participation of Bulk Carriers in
LDT generation. In that way, Panamanian fleet represents more than 70% of the
total number of ships available tor recycling with at least 55% of its ships
between 10,000 and 50,000 DWT essentially corresponding to Bulk Carrier and
General Cargo ships.
To calculate the market
value of the ships available for recycling belonging to Latin-American fleets,
we used the same price criteria for the LDT quotation in the international ship
recycling market (±$250/LDT) (Jain, 2017; Mikelis, 2018b); so that, were possible to obtained a market value of
US$19.94 billion. The following two figures show the market value per year from
2018 to 2042, figure 10 represents the market value for the two biggest fleets
(Panama and Bahamas) and Figure 12 show the market value for the remaining fleets.
Figure 12: Estimation of market value
of ship recycling through Panama and Bahamas ships´ fleet
Both Panama and Bahamas
represent the largest demands of ship recycling in the series from 2018 to
2042. Their maximum values are between 2033 and 2040, representing annually
more than $ 1 billion/year. The Figure 13 represents a general vision considering the other 8
countries selected from Latin America ship fleets for the analysis.
Figure 13: Estimation of market value
of ship recycling through 8 Latin American ships´ fleet
Figure 13 shows that the market values do not represent a
uniform series with tendency or seasonality, being notoriously scattered
throughout the 25 years. Between 2027 and 2038 It showed a period with the
greatest financial representativeness with its maximum in 2030. The disparity
between the number of ships available for recycling each year and the elevated
concentration in small and big portions are due to differences in size and
contemporaneity of the ship fleets.
6. DISCUSSIONS
When analysing the
variables (I) and (II) defined in the study problem, which are relate with the
volume of steel production and the volume of steel scrap available in the
domestic market cited in (4.1). The supply of steel scrap in Brazil does not
serve the internal demand of this material as evidenced in Figure 3.
Figures 3 and 4 showed a
deficit of steel scrap which is being demanded by the national steel and
smelting industries. In the same order, Brazil exports steel scrap to different
international destinations using similar prices, as practiced in the Asian and
international market.
The Brazilian
shipbuilding industry can articulate sectoral strategic plans with the council
and the industry ministry to promote national steel scrap negotiations. This is
to meet domestic and international demand for scrap involving all the
commercial groups participating in the local scrap supply chain. Many scrap
industries in Brazil can participate of ship recycling activities and obtained
a return in this operation. On the other hand, is necessary to clarify that the
majority of the scrap to be extracted from ship recycling can be exported as
laminated steel which is extensively used in the civil construction in the
centre and southern Asia.
Another justification
for the extraction of steel from ship recycling, relates to the quality of
steel scrap to be used in the steel mills production process for the generation
of high-quality products. According to (JANKE et al., 2000; PEREIRA et al., 2003) good quality scrap is free from undesirable materials
that affect the characteristics of steel like a coatings and other mixed metals
and that according to the type of blended metal can directly influence the
ductility and deformability of the final steel (HAUPT et al., 2017).
After considering the
total steel scrap available in Brazil in 2016, was observed that 54%
corresponded to obsolete steel scrap, considered as the material with the
highest impurities index (CGEE - MDIC, 2014; ALICE WEB, 2017; INSTITUTO AÇO BRASIL, 2017). In contrast, the steel processing industries of
South Asia use ship´s steel scrap extensively in the re-laminating process due
to its high purity and quality (SAHU, 2014; CHOI et al., 2016; DEVAULT et al., 2016).
This scenario described
above allows us to infer that naval steel can guarantee the intrinsic
characteristics of products to be manufactured and processed by the Brazilian
steel and smelting industry. Then, there is a significant possibility of
promoting the use of industrial steel scrap (Naval steel scrap from ship
recycling) in the production process of the steelmakers, guaranteeing
higher-quality steel and the reduction of operational costs related to yield,
separation-classification and scrap purification.
When analysing the
behaviour of the international trade balance of scrap between Brazil and other
countries, as shown through variable (III). From 2007 to 2017, there was an
average of 0.37 million tons/year of steel scrap exported, compared to 0.05
million tons/year imported in the same period. Therefore, Brazil is currently engaged
in scrap exports, supported by the similarity of steel prices in the domestic
and international markets.
In 2017 the index that
compares the volume of steel scrap imports versus the internal scrap demand
showed increments that allow inferring in the opening of export markets of
steel scrap to other countries outside Brazil. Additionally, the index that
compares the amount of steel scrap generated in Brazil compared with Brazilian
scrap exports was 3.7%. Those indexes showed that even the local scrap market
presented a deficit in steel scrap supply for local steel industries, several
amounts of this material are exported to the international market.
On the other hand, when
analysing the variable (IV) related to the volume of potentially recoverable steel
scrap from ship fleets through the ship recycling activity, it was possible to
identify that the implementation of ship recycling could provide significant
volumes of steel scrap, especially leveraged by Latin American vessel fleets,
as shown in Figures 7 and 8 respectively. The extraction of materials from the
recycling activities of ships allows a high index of naval exploitation of
steel (KNAPP et al., 2008; CHOI et al., 2016; JAIN, 2017; JAIN et al., 2017). Thus, the activity represents a market opportunity
to be harnessed for the supply of scrap to the local steel and foundry
industry, which can be leveraged by local shipyards.
In this line, the values
presented in the Figure 7 (ship recycling market value for Brazilian ships´
fleets), and Figures 10 and 11 (ship recycling market value for Latin
Americans´ fleets) showed a market with significant potential to exploring, in
this manner, the high representativeness of other fleets of neighbouring ships
was evident. Therefore, were estimated approximately 5,620 ships available for
recycling from both Brazilian and Latin American ship fleet. This number of
vessels corresponds to 78.912 million of LDT with a market value of US$ 20.52
billion.
The activities and
operational flows commonly practiced in ship recycling process follow the
reverse sequence of the shipbuilding process (ANDERSEN et al., 2001; KAISER, 2008; JAIN, 2017). However, the same author asserts that Asian
shipyards use porticos and cranes with less capacity than those of other
construction sites. In this line, (JAIN, 2017) argues that the average load capacity of cranes
belonging to recycling yards in India is lower than others foreign shipyards.
The crane represents the key mechanical structure limiting the displacement
capacity daily from steel from the ship´s hull (pre-cut area) to the (post-cut)
or sizing areas.
Authors like (OVERGAARD et al., 2013) points out that the success of ship recycling
activities is the technique applied to guarantee the decommissioning
productivity. In this sense, the ship recycling yard is responsible for the
appropriate design of the areas distribution of cutting and post-cutting phases
allowing the best manoeuvres of the segments of the mega-structure, cutting and
classification of the smaller parts (OVERGAARD, S. et al., 2013; HIREMATH et al., 2015; JAIN, 2017).
Yet, these aspects are
recognized as elements that guarantee the productivity and success of recycling
activities in Asia. Authors such as (HIREMATH et al., 2015) highlight that all operational aspects already
mentioned, and highlight different variables that can be taken advantage of by
the Brazilian shipyards as a key factor for the consolidation of productive and
sustainable ship recycling activities.
Occasionally, Brazilian
shipyards counts with steel processing capacity of ±900,000 tons - construction
capacity - of which on average at least
91% are rendered useless. Those shipyards are highly mechanized and
environmentally approved to develop ship recycling processes (BRASIL - MINISTÉRIO DO TRABALHO, 2013; OCAMPO, 2018). So that, we can infer that only serving the local
fleet is not productively and economically viable to justify the implementation
of ship recycling in local shipyards.
Therefore, it is
necessary to consider the demand for recycling of other neighbouring fleets to
carry out the activity of recycling of ships locally. On the other hand,
Brazilian shipyards have appropriate facilities, consolidated process
management and environmental licensing. Considering these points, we assumed
the scenario in which the 19 Brazilian shipyards could participate in ship
recycling activities. The technical capacity of the construction process is
100% usable and compatible with the recycling capacity of ships.
7. CONCLUSIONS
We conclude that less
technical demands for ship recycling makes possible for the Brazilian shipyards
to participate of this industry, because they count with infrastructural
capacity to adapt their current processes of construction and repair to ship
recycling activities. For this, they need to accomplish environmental and
international ship recycling requirements.
While analysing the
productivity scenario of steel mill and foundry industry in Brazil compared
with the internal steel scrap demand, we identified the existence of an
unsatisfied demand of steel scrap for the steel industry and local steel mills.
However, it is necessary to specify that Brazil exports steel scrap to
countries in South Asia. This market dynamic is supported by the common steel
scrap prices practiced by Brazil and the Asian market besides the great demand
of steel of the last countries.
It was evidenced that
the obsolescence scrap is responsible for at least 50% of the total material
supply for the Brazilian steel and smelting industry. It should be remembered
that obsolescence scrap presents a series of secondary materials, alloys and
impurities which influence its material quality and which demands a
purification processes, representing an additional cost for the packaging of
the material. Thus, naval steel has fewer treatments and secondary materials,
in addition, most of its geometries are flat, presents itself as a promising
scrap that would help to supply the presented scrap deficits.
The analysis of the
economic value for the extractable steel scrap from both scenarios (Brazilian
and Latin American fleets), showed an activity with significant potential
market to be explored both together represents US$ 20,52 billion. Latin
American fleets represents a business opportunity for Brazilian shipyards.
Those fleets could contribute to the generation of revenues for the local
shipyards thought ship recycling as an alternative activity. Therefore, a
greater number of ships on the market year after year would increase the
chances of shipyards ensure high occupancy and productivity of their assets.
The aspects already
mentioned enables the articulation of plans for exportation of steel scrap from
Brazil to foreign markets, thought the extraction of steel scrap locally by
non-traditional ways, and meeting the local and foreign demand taking advantage
from the price parity of this metal in the local and international market.
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